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2024 Preakness Stakes Betting: Longshot Horses, Analysis, & History


The Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel of the horse betting Triple Crown, is coming up on Saturday evening. The morning line favorite, Muth, has already been scratched from the race after spiking a fever earlier this week.

The Preakness betting field is down to eight horses, headlined by current favorite and Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.

At 8-5 on the morning line, Mystik Dan, for trainer Kenny McPeek, will try to be the 37th horse in history to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

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Preakness Stakes longshots and analysis

Mugatu, 20-1

  • Post position: 1
  • Jockey: Joe Bravo
  • Trainer: Jeff Engler
  • Wins/starts: 1/12

Mugatu found himself on the outside looking in for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. He earned only enough qualifying points to get on the also-eligibles list, needing two scratches before the race to get in. Those scratches never came, so his trainer, Jeff Engler, pointed him toward Baltimore instead. Mugatu only has a maiden win to his name. However, a fifth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes was arguably his best career race last time out.

Uncle Heavy, 20-1

  • Post position: 2
  • Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
  • Trainer: Butch Reid
  • Wins/starts: 3/5

Uncle Heavy failed to qualify for the Kentucky Derby after finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his last race. He ran very wide throughout that race, which compromised his chances. Before the Wood Memorial, Uncle Heavy won the Withers Stakes, another Kentucky Derby prep race in New York. With jockey Irad Ortiz, one of the nation’s leading riders, Uncle Heavy could attract additional attention.

Seize The Grey, 12-1

  • Post position: 6
  • Jockey: Jaime Torres
  • Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
  • Wins/starts: 3/9

Seize The Grey is running back on short rest. Last time out on Kentucky Derby Day, he won the Pat Day Mile. Two races back, he finished seventh, beaten 10 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes. Horses coming out of the Pat Day Mile do not typically run in the Preakness because of the two-week turnaround and the increased distance at the Preakness, which is run at 1 3/16 miles. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness six times.

Just Steel, 12-1

  • Post position: 7
  • Jockey: Joel Rosario
  • Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
  • Wins/starts: 2/12

Two weeks ago, Just Steel finished near the rear of the Kentucky Derby field, crossing the line seventeenth out of 20 horses. He raced near the front early in the Derby but found himself more than a dozen lengths behind at the top of the stretch. Just Steel finished second in the Arkansas Derby, two lengths behind original Preakness favorite Muth and more than four lengths ahead of eventually Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.

Are longshots worth a wager?

Deciding on a Preakness Stakes wager takes research and forming your own opinion. Several longshots have won the race in recent years.

  • 2023: National Treasure, 3-1
  • 2022: Early Voting, 6-1
  • 2021: Rombauer, 12-1
  • 2020: Swiss Skydiver, 11-1
  • 2019: War of Will, 6-1

Since 1998, six horses have won the Preakness Stakes at double-digit odds.

Other horses with shorter odds

Imagination, 3-1

  • Post position: 9
  • Jockey: Frankie Dettori
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert
  • Wins/starts: 2/6

Imagination finished second, beaten by a neck, in the Santa Anita Derby last time out. The horse who beat him, Stronghold, ran a solid seventh in the Kentucky Derby. Imagination likes to run close to the lead and should be part of the early pace scenario. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness eight times, including last year with 3-1 second-choice National Treasure.

Catching Freedom, 7-2

  • Post position: 3
  • Jockey: Flavien Pratt
  • Trainer: Brad Cox
  • Wins/starts: 3/6

Catching Freedom, trained by Brad Cox, finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. He lost by less than two lengths. Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby, beating another top Preakness contender in Tuscan Gold.

Tuscan Gold, 9-2

  • Post position: 8
  • Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
  • Trainer: Chad Brown
  • Wins/starts: 1/3

Tuscan Gold is the most inexperienced horse in the Preakness, with just three career races. Chad Brown entered him in the Louisiana Derby off his maiden win, a strong vote of confidence. In his first career race in November 2023, Tuscan Gold finished three lengths behind Sierra Leone, who went on to win the Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes before finishing second by a nose in the Kentucky Derby.

Latest Preakness Stakes odds

Below is an up-to-date table of Preakness Stakes betting odds.

Position Horse Jockey Trainer Morning line odds
1 Mugatu Joe Bravo Jeff Engler 20-1
2 Uncle Heavy Irad Ortiz, Jr. Butch Reid 20-1
3 Catching Freedom Flavien Prat Brad Cox 7-2
4 Muth Juan Hernandez Bob Baffert SCR
5 Mystik Dan Brian Hernandez Kenny McPeek 8-5
6 Seize The Grey Jaime Torres D. Wayne Lukas 12-1
7 Just Steel Joel Rosario D. Wayne Lukas 12-1
8 Tuscan Gold Tyler Gaffalione Chad Brown 9-2
9 Imagination Frankie Dettori Bob Baffert 3-1

The post 2024 Preakness Stakes Betting: Longshot Horses, Analysis, & History appeared first on Legal Sports Report.

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