Week 1 of the NFL season delivered 791 points across 16 games, tied for the highest scoring opening slate in history. That number drives my best NFL picks today, because the market still prices several of these teams off last season’s reputation instead of what they showed a week ago.
Since Detroit vs. Buffalo already sits in the books with Josh Allen and the Bills winning a shootout, my best NFL picks today cover the 15 games left on the slate.
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Early Window NFL Picks Today (1 p.m. ET)
Underdogs carry this group of my best NFL picks today from the early slate of games. See how Week 1 and past trends influence my NFL odds predictions:
- Panthers vs. Falcons: Atlanta +2.5. Carolina hung 37 in Chicago but still surrendered 552 yards. Atlanta’s front held Pittsburgh to 264 total yards.
- Vikings vs. Bears: Minnesota +5.5. The Vikings own eight of the last ten meetings and outscored Green Bay 22-0 in the fourth quarter.
- Eagles vs. Titans: Philadelphia by 7. Tennessee mustered 195 total yards at home in Week 1. Philadelphia travels fine without A.J. Brown.
- Packers vs. Jets: Green Bay by 4.5. Jordan Love threw for 387 yards in a loss. An angry offense meets a Jets defense playing its home opener.
- Browns vs. Buccaneers: Cleveland +8.5. Tampa Bay sits 0-10 against the spread over its last ten games. That trend outweighs the talent gap.
- Saints vs. Ravens: Over 47.5. Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards, then Lamar Jackson answered with 324 and three Derrick Henry scores. Neither defense holds up today.
- Bengals vs. Texans: Cincinnati +3. The underdog has covered six straight in this series, and Joe Burrow put up 33 points with Ja’Marr Chase held to 12 yards.
- Steelers vs. Patriots: New England by 5.5. The Patriots have covered five straight as a home favorite and four straight following a loss.
Best NFL Picks Today from Late Afternoon Games (4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET)
This window rewards patience, so my best NFL picks today fade Week 1 overreactions.
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: Jacksonville +2.5. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns on 23 attempts. Bo Nix averaged 4.7 yards per attempt. The road team has covered six straight in this series.
- Raiders vs. Chargers: Los Angeles by 6.5. Justin Herbert owns a 4-0 record against Las Vegas under Jim Harbaugh, and the favorite has covered seven of the last eight in this series.
- Commanders vs. Cowboys: Dallas by 4.5. Dallas has covered eight of the last ten against Washington and avoids an 0-2 hole at home.
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals: Arizona +4.5. Drew Lock starts with Sam Darnold sidelined. Jacoby Brissett just carved up the Chargers for 277 yards.
- Dolphins vs. 49ers: Under 45.5. The Under has hit in seven of Miami’s last ten, and San Francisco grinds clock once it leads.
Primetime NFL Picks
Two national windows close out my best NFL picks today.
- Colts vs. Chiefs (SNF): Indianapolis +6.5. The Colts have covered four straight as a road underdog, and Indianapolis remains one of four teams with a winning regular season record against Patrick Mahomes.
- Giants vs. Rams (MNF): Los Angeles by 7. Sean McVay is 4-0 against the Giants, averaging 33 points in those wins. The Rams have also covered eight of their last nine games after a loss.
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