The Kentucky Derby promises excitement for fans and bettors at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3. Since post positions have been released, our experts have updated their rundown of top horses. They cover prime contenders, their latest results, and pivotal factors like jockey prowess that could sway the race. If you are betting or cheering, dive into our data or our how-to-bet Kentucky Derby guide to stay ahead and make informed picks for the iconic event.
| Horse & Sire | Jockey | Track Odds | Argona Odds | Best Beyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizen Bull & Into Mischief | Martin Garcia | 20*1 | 30*1 | 98 |
| Neoequos & Neolithic | Flavien Prat | 30*1 | 50*1 | 91 |
| Final Gambit & Not This Time | Luan Machado | 30*1 | 20*1 | 90 |
| Rodriguez & Authentic | Mike Smith | 12*1 | 12*1 | 101 |
| American Promise & Justify | Nik Juarez | 30*1 | 30*1 | 95 |
| Admire Daytona & Drefong | Christopher Lemaire | 30*1 | 30*1 | N/A |
| Luxor Cafe & American Pharoah | Joao Moreira | 15*1 | 10*1 | N/A |
| Journalism & Curlin | Umberto Rispoli | 3*1 | 5*2 | 108 |
| Burnham Square & Liam’s Map | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 12*1 | 10*1 | 96 |
| Grande & Curlin | John Velazquez | 20*1 | 20*1 | 97 |
| Flying Mohawk & Karakontie | Joe Ramos | 30*1 | 50*1 | 84 |
| East Avenue & Medaglia d’Oro | Manny Franco | 20*1 | 20*1 | 96 |
| Publisher & American Pharoah | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20*1 | 20*1 | 95 |
| Tiztastic & Tiz the Law | Joel Rosario | 20*1 | 20*1 | 95 |
| Render Judgment & Blame | Julien Leparoux | 30*1 | 50*1 | 90 |
| Coal Battle & Coal Front | Juan Vargas | 30*1 | 15*1 | 91 |
| Sandman & Tapit | Jose Ortiz | 6*1 | 8*1 | 99 |
| Sovereignty & Mischief | Junior Alvarado | 5*1 | 6*1 | 95 |
| Clunk of Gold & Preservationist | Jareth Loveberry | 30*1 | 30*1 | 92 |
| Owen Almighty & Speightstown | Javier Castellano | 30*1 | 50*1 | 93 |
Updated analysis, comments, and insights for top horses
Below, Brad Free and David Argona of the Daily Racing Form break down each horse’s most recent race along with some key insights.
- Citizen Bull: Champion 2024 juvenile front-runner tough to like off distant fourth in SA Derby and buried down on the rail. Exposed in SA Derby when unable to secure easy lead; very tough to make the front from post 1 in the Derby.
- Neoequos: Pace-presser retreated to third despite easy fractions in Florida Derby, may want shorter, adds speed. One of a few speeds stuck inside, he could have a tough trip coming; hard to see his path to victory.
- Final Gambit: Synthetic-surface specialist worked well on dirt since Jeff Ruby upset, but dirt kickback presents challenge. Ruby win was visually impressive; should get pace, but pedigree leans turf; many questions to answer.
- Rodriguez: Front-running winner of Wood runs best setting pace, but several to his inside and outside have same style. Finally got chance to shine in Wood, but now faces tough pace scenario from less-than-ideal inside draw.
- American Promise: Dominated second-tier field in one-turn nine-furlong Virginia Derby; imposing colt getting good at right time. Sustained honest pace in dominant Virginia Derby score; should get the distance, but has to deal with faster pace.
- Admire Daytona: UAE Derby win validates Luxor Cafe, who beat ’Daytona decisively in Japan; Dubai-to-Derby ship is difficult. Did well to withstand contested early pace in Dubai; under-the-radar runner is gritty but needs to improve.
- Luxor Cafe: Won four straight in Japan; stakes two back flattered when 4-3 finishers 1-3 UAE Derby, these much tougher. Fast finisher has shown star potential in Japan; prefers to race outside in clear, but may not have that luxury.
- Journalism: Fastest on speed figures, overcame trouble to win SA Derby, wants 1 1/4 mile, legit favorite at likely low odds. Derby fave doesn’t appear to have any significant weaknesses and drew well; tough to deny with a fair trip.
- Burnham Square: Late-runner exploited pace collapse to win visually unimpressive Blue Grass, style suits likely fast Derby pace. Got right setup in Blue Grass; has continued improving, will stay the distance and gets last year’s winning jock.
- Grande: Wide-trip Wood runner-up ran as well as winner; seeks Derby win in fourth start a la Big Brown, Justify, Mage. Agree with Brad on tough Wood trip; has talent and stamina; light racing and training schedule a concern.
- Flying Mohawk: Turf-synthetic specialist runner-up in Jeff Ruby, but never raced on dirt nor run particularly fast; would be shock. Ruby runner-up finish puts him in the field, but needs to run the best race of his career on unfamiliar surface.
- East Avenue: Sent hard to lead and nailed in Blue Grass, rounding into form, insures pace for same owner’s Sovereignty. Need-the-lead type fought on gamely after setting taxing pace in Blue Grass; tough year to wire the Derby.
- Publisher: Benefited by closers-friendly race flow second in Arkansas Derby; late-running maiden could upset if pace collapses. Plodder got similar trip to Sandman and couldn’t stay with that rival late; has reportedly trained well into race.
- Tiztastic: Late-runner put it all together in Louisiana Derby win, although FG 3-year-olds mostly modest this season; will roll in lane. Got the right trip in fast-paced FG victory; probably has to improve again, but he should stay the distance.
- Render Judgment: Never run fast enough to be marginal contender Kentucky Derby, shame he is in but Baeza an also-eligible. He’s relatively light on accomplishments but worked the points system to qualify; has little to no chance.
- Coal Battle: Did clock strike midnight for Cinderella story, or did he move too early when third in Arkansas Derby? Moved early into extreme pace in Arkansas Derby; versatile colt makes his own good trips, but needs to improve.
- Sandman: Heavily campaigned eight-start Arkansas Derby winner could get another ideal pace scenario to set up late rally. Earned fast Beyer at OP with perfect setup, but was still green; needs to focus to be effective in the Derby.
- Sovereignty: Virtually paired career-best fig finishing well for second in Florida Derby; ideal prep, uncertain if fast enough. A faster fig would have been nice, but still progressed mentally in Florida Derby; training better than ever now.
- Clunk of Gold: Lightly raced closer produced more tactical speed when second in Louisiana Derby; paired career-best fig; longshot? Overachiever ran better than looks in both Louisiana preps; versatile running style will help from this post.
- Owen Almighty: Curious addition to Kentucky Derby field after nowhere finish in Blue Grass; distance-challenged colt adds pace. Trainer says they plan to rate, which may be necessary from this tough post; hard to build a case for him.
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