Kentucky Books Clean Up On UK’s Stunning Early Exit

For the first March Madness that Kentucky sportsbooks could offer lines on the most popular one-month event in sports, a preponderance of Wildcats’ fans went all in on their beloved team.

At four prominent books, the University of Kentucky dominated activity on the futures market, with more than 50% of the handle on the Wildcats to win the national title. After all, Kentucky ended the regular season on a tear, notching three top-15 wins, including a four-point victory over then-No. 4 Tennessee on Senior Night in Knoxville.

The No. 3 seed in the South Region, Kentucky entered the NCAA Tournament as a chic pick to cut down the nets at next month’s Final Four in Arizona. But last Thursday, Oakland guard Jack Gohlke drained 10 3-pointers en route to a shocking upset, as Kentucky fell to a double-digit seed for the second time in three years.

“This team, I really felt, could have done so much more,” said Kentucky coach John Calipari during the postgame news conference. “To define our season with this game, it’s the sport we’re in. But this one hit me hard because I thought I had a team that could do some stuff.”

A stunning defeat

Gohlke, a former guard at Hillsdale College in Michigan, spent the first four years of his career at the Division II school before transferring to Oakland last year. The Golden Grizzlies reserve guard continually burned the nets, finishing one 3-pointer away from tying the NCAA Tournament single-game record. Gohlke’s final 3, a jumper over the outstretched arm of Reed Sheppard, gave Oakland a 67-62 lead with 4:43 left.

Gohlke, 24, fittingly clinched the 80-76 win with a defensive rebound on the game’s final play. Despite his team’s overtime loss to NC State on Saturday, Gohlke set an NCAA Tournament record for 3-pointers by a player over their first two games of March Madness.

JACK GOHLKE 🔥

30 POINTS. 10 THREES. pic.twitter.com/ObXnLd0X2W

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) March 22, 2024

At Fanatics, more than 87% of in-state bettors in Kentucky took the Wildcats against the spread, comprising 95.1% of the handle. The percentage topped nationwide levels, where 78.1% of Fanatics’ tickets had Kentucky with the spread. Kentucky bettors displayed a regional bias at DraftKings, as well, where customers took the Wildcats on 89% of all spread tickets.

When selecting Kentucky to either cover or win on the moneyline, Kentucky had a 57% share of the bets nationally at ESPN BET. As with the other books, the Wildcats garnered considerably more action inside the Commonwealth, with 78% of all wagers statewide.

Caesars Sportsbook did not provide Sports Handle with splits from the Kentucky market. But nationwide, Oakland’s victory on the moneyline ranked as the second-best result for the book last Thursday, according to Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars. Only Dayton’s comeback over Nevada provided a better result.

Kentucky books dominate on the futures market

Few states across the country contain more ravenous fans for college basketball than the Bluegrass State, where Kentucky and Louisville have combined for 11 NCAA championships in men’s basketball. Louisville, the 2013 national champions, later had its participation in that year’s tournament vacated because of NCAA violations.

As a state, Kentucky is third in the country in national titles behind only California and North Carolina. The Wildcats, who own eight titles alone, also rank first in Division I winning percentage and all-time victories. The state went live with legal sports betting last September, weeks before the opening tip of the 2023-24 season.

Can’t wait to see the March sportsbook hold in Kentucky. Which at this rate won’t be available from the KHRC until Memorial Day.#SportsBettingX #GamblingX

— Chris Altruda (@AlTruda73) March 22, 2024

With at least three projected first-round picks in this year’s NBA Draft, Kentucky appeared poised for a deep run. Guards Rob Dillingham and Sheppard are projected to go in the top six picks in the draft, according to NBADraft.net.

Four others — D.J. Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, Justin Edwards and Zvonimir Ivišić — are projected by the site to be selected in the 2025 NBA Draft.

The deep pool of talent prompted many entrants to pick Kentucky to go all the way in their bracket. At BetMGM, 57% of futures bettors inside the state of Kentucky took the Wildcats, comprising 64% of the handle. The numbers were even higher at DraftKings, where futures on the Wildcats to win the national title represented 74% of the overall handle. None of the other schools at DraftKings hit double-digits in handle percentage.

All five books reported a considerable disparity between the figures inside the state and the rest of the country. The handle for Kentucky futures inside the state hit 68% at Bet365, compared with 18% for its U.S. books altogether.

Prior to Friday afternoon’s tip, the Wildcats represented approximately 45% of the handle at ESPN BET inside the state, compared with only 7% nationally. Those figures appear to be lower than the mean, since bettors had 15 hours to wager on futures after Oakland eliminated the Wildcats.

FanDuel did not provide Sports Handle with Kentucky splits in time for Monday’s deadline. Ahead of the tournament, the Wildcats ranked third nationally at FanDuel with a handle of 15%.

At the start of the 2023 season, Kentucky led all Division I schools with 26 players on an NBA roster. The group includes NBA All-Stars Anthony Davis, Devin Booker and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The demoralizing defeat, however, may convince Calipari to build an older roster.

“Do I change because of that? Maybe (we should) add a couple older guys,” Calipari said. “I feel bad for our fans who traveled again. These kids know they’re playing for these fans, who are the best in the country. I imagine they’re hurting, like we are hurting.”