The Las Vegas tourism decline became one of the biggest travel stories of 2025. Visitor numbers fell sharply, dropping to levels not seen since the pandemic years. It ultimately affected gambling revenue, and it will take more than the opening of the Guitar Hotel to do it, but new forecasts from UNLV’s Center for Business & Economic Research (CBER) suggest that 2026 may bring a slow but meaningful rebound.
After seeing some positive signs earlier this year, here’s what the latest data shows, why tourism slipped so much, and what could help Las Vegas recover.
2025: The Steepest Drop in Visitors Since COVID
Las Vegas ended 2025 with 38.5 million visitors, a 7.5% decline from 2024. Outside the pandemic, this was the largest annual drop in modern Vegas history. This downturn followed several years of uneven recovery:
- 2024: 41.6 million visitors
- 2023: 40.8 million visitors
- 2016 record: 42.9 million visitors
The fall in 2025 was sharp enough that many analysts began talking openly about a Las Vegas tourism decline driven by affordability issues, economic pressure, and weaker air travel.
What Caused the Las Vegas Tourism Decline?
Several forces hit the city at the same time:
- Weak discretionary spending — Middle‑ and lower‑income travelers cut back the most. First‑time and infrequent visitors dropped sharply.
- High prices — Resort fees, dining costs, and entertainment prices pushed many travelers to look for cheaper destinations.
- International softness — Canadian visitation fell hard due to tariffs, politics, and currency issues. Europe and Asia held steadier but didn’t grow enough to offset losses.
- Air travel problems — The shutdown of Spirit Airlines hit budget travelers and reduced flight capacity.
- K‑shaped recovery — Wealthy travelers and business visitors kept coming, but the mass‑market segment shrank.
Despite these challenges, drive‑in traffic from California stayed strong, and private jet arrivals actually increased.
2026 Forecast: A Partial Rebound to 40.5 Million Visitors
During presentation to the Nevada Society of CPAs last week, CBER director Andrew Woods projected:
- 2026 forecast: 40.5 million visitors
- Increase: +5% or +2 million over 2025
- Still below: 2023–2024 levels and far below the 2016 record
Earlier CBER forecasts were more conservative (39–40 million), so this updated number reflects cautious optimism, not a full comeback.
What 2026 Data Shows So Far (January–April)
The latest reports from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Association (LVCVA) show a mixed (through April) but stabilizing picture:
- January: 3.27M visitors (‑2.2% YoY)
- February: 3.02M visitors (+1.6% YoY)
- March: 3.45M visitors (+1.9% YoY, boosted by CONEXPO)
- April: 3.28M visitors (‑1.8% YoY)
2026 YTD: 13.0M visitors (‑0.2% YoY, essentially flat)
Other key metrics:
- Convention attendance: +10.1% YTD
- Hotel ADR: $197.83 (+4.3%)
- RevPAR: $162.62 (+3.9%)
- Air passengers: ‑5.6% YTD
- Gaming revenue: Up modestly
This early data supports the idea of stabilization, not a surge.
What Could Drive the Recovery?
CBER and LVCVA point to several tailwinds:
- A packed convention calendar — CONEXPO, NAB, and other major events are boosting weekday demand.
- Pro sports and entertainment — Raiders, Golden Knights, Aces, big fights, and major concerts draw high‑spending visitors.
- Value promotions — Hotels and casinos are offering deals to win back price‑sensitive travelers.
- Stabilizing consumer behavior — Even small improvements in national sentiment could lift visitation.
There’s also a push to transform current eyesores into new hotels and casinos. Still, Woods describes the outlook as “cautiously pessimistic.” The national economy—not local events—will determine whether Las Vegas hits the 40.5M target.
Why Las Vegas Is So Sensitive to the Economy
Las Vegas has always been tied to:
- Fuel prices
- Airline capacity
- Consumer confidence
- Affordability
The city has bounced back from past downturns (2008 recession, COVID shutdowns) by leaning heavily on conventions, sports, and pricing adjustments. The same playbook is in motion now.
Outlook: A Recovery, But Not a Full Comeback Yet
The Las Vegas tourism decline of 2025 was real and significant. The 2026 forecast shows improvement, but not a return to record highs.
To hit 40.5 million visitors, Las Vegas will need:
- Strong summer travel
- A healthy fall convention season
- Better air travel capacity
- A rebound in discretionary spending
For now, the city is on a slow, steady path upward, not a rapid climb.
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