After six sluggish games, the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers now meet in a win-or-go-home game seven – the first occurrence of the 2024 playoffs. There is a common belief that the pace grinds to a halt and defenses shut down offenses during game sevens; however, does recent history actually corroborate this notion? Plus, is the general public also correct about home teams possessing a significant advantage in a game seven situation?
Historic game seven trends
Over the past 10 postseasons (2014-2023), there have been 34 instances where a series went to seven games. When totaling the first six games of all 34 series, it resulted in an average score of 207.9 points per game and a median of 207.5 points per game. Meanwhile, game seven had an average score of 199.1 points per game and a median of 197.5 points per game. That’s essentially a ten-point drop for the final game compared to the previous six contests of the series – a mammoth difference.
The under went 22-12 in those games, which is a 64.7% hit rate. A -110 line owns an implied probability of roughly 52%, so there has been about a 12% edge for betting unders in game sevens over the past ten seasons. In other words, the perception that defenses rule the day during a game seven appears to be valid.
Additionally, the home team prevailed in 20 of 34 game sevens, or 58% of the time. Given that they are the superior seed and typically favored with a juiced moneyline, blindly betting the home team has not yielded quality results over the past ten years.
Overall, the under hitting in a game seven has been the common trend from recent NBA history.
Magic vs. Cavaliers odds
Online sportsbooks are fully aware of the under trends and have adjusted accordingly. The total was 206 points for the first two games of the series before dropping to 202 points across the next four contests. Now, game seven has the total set for around a measly 194 points, which is a drastic change.
Both teams possess the defensive tools to neutralize each other’s offense. Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, and Orlando’s wings can slow down Cleveland’s pick-and-roll while bothering their isolation scorers. On the other side, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are elite rim protectors that create a formidable last line of defense against Orlando’s slashers. Based on recent game seven trends and the involved squads, this win-or-go-home game may be extremely low scoring.
BetMGM Insight
Did online sportsbooks adjust the line too severely? The public seems to think so based on their betting of this game. Per BetMGM today (May 5), 81% of the tickets and 80% of the handle are on the over. Recent history indicates a scoring drop in game seven, but perhaps online sportsbooks overestimated the fall.
The post Magic vs. Cavaliers Game Seven Odds: Analyzing Historical Game Seven Trends appeared first on Legal Sports Report.
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