Most NFL Awards Markets Far From Settled Heading Into Week 18

With one week left in the NFL season, certain outcomes are settled.

The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences, Lamar Jackson has locked up the MVP Award (he’s now a ridiculous -20000 at FanDuel and DraftKings, after being +550 heading into the Week 16 game against the 49ers), and it appears almost certain that Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns will walk away with the Coach of the Year Award (he’s -1000 at DraftKings, with the Colts’ Shane Steichen and Texans’ DeMeco Ryans both at +1100).

But that’s about it for fully clinched seeds and all-but-clinched awards markets. With awards futures specifically, there are still plenty of pathways for the odds to flip in Week 18 on America’s sports betting apps.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

We’re starting here because this one is bananas. Jalen Carter of the Philadelphia Eagles is the favorite and has been the favorite. But dig this: At the time of this writing, he’s -700 at BetMGM, -500 at ESPN BET, -330 at DraftKings (after opening Wednesday at -500), -300 at Caesars, and -155 at FanDuel. Why? 

Because Will Anderson of the Houston Texans has been coming on strong while Carter has faltered. People who track this stuff — like Establish the Run’s Anthony Amico — have noticed.

Tell me why Will Anderson isnt the favorite pic.twitter.com/zXvy2PI2Pb

— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) January 1, 2024

Anderson’s odds were as high as +4000 a few weeks ago.

As of Wednesday morning, Anderson was at  +375 at BetMGM, +320 at ESPN BET, +275 at DraftKings, and +200 at FanDuel and Caesars.

But wait, we’re not done.

Kobie Turner of the Los Angeles Rams has been turning it on over the last few weeks, and his odds are equally scattered — if you can even find them. He’s +750 at DraftKings, not even listed at ESPN BET or BetMGM, +575 at Caesars, and +470 at FanDuel.

Clearly, there is plenty of movement yet to come in this ridiculously fluid market.

Comeback Player of the Year

It’s basically down to two choices: Joe Flacco, who came back in his age-38 year, off the street, to lead the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs by going 4-1 in the last five weeks, and Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin, who has played 17 snaps this year but came back from literally dying on the field last year.

This is another market where there are significant price swings as of our publication time.

Flacco is even odds at DraftKings, +125 at ESPN BET, and +140 at Caesars, with Hamlin -140 at DraftKings, -150 at ESPN BET, and +180 at Caesars. Worth noting: Hamlin had been at -700 — or shorter, even — for the bulk of the year.

Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield is a distant third, at +1200 at DraftKings and +1400 at ESPN BET and Caesars.

Offensive Player of the Year

Heading into the final week of the season, Christian McCaffrey — who won’t be playing this week due to a strained calf (and the fact that the 49ers have clinched home field) — is the favorite, with odds ranging from -300 at DraftKings to -400 at BetRivers.

Lingering is Tyreek Hill, who won’t get to 2,000 receiving yards but does have a Sunday night nationally televised game for the AFC East title against the Buffalo Bills. Hill can be had for up to +275 at BetMGM. While 100 yards and a score probably won’t move those odds, 180 yards and three TDs — and a Dolphins win — almost certainly would.

Defensive Player of the Year

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett is the favorite, at -240 at DraftKings, with Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys and T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers at +250 and +380, respectively. While it’s not a likely scenario, what if Parsons or Watt have some late-game heroics — say, a sack and return for a score — that tip the scales?

Watt in particular is one to watch here, as the Steelers’ playoff hopes hang in the balance and they’re playing an island game against the Ravens on Saturday.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

This one is probably settled, with CJ Stroud (-850 at FanDuel) almost certainly set to hold off Rams wideout Puka Nacua (+450). These odds will only grow if Stroud leads the Texans to the playoffs Sunday in their win-or-(probably)-go home tilt against the Indianapolis Colts. But if Stroud face-plants, the odds will certainly tighten.