NFL Week 13: San Francisco And Brotherly Love

So last week was a disaster, picks-wise, and I fully blame my brother. I’m sending him a bill.

See, he lives out in San Francisco, and he’s been out there for like 15 years or so, and I’ve never been out to visit with my wife and three kids.

Now before you tell me what a terrible person I am, know that he — and his wife and four kids — travel back here to New Jersey twice a year to visit. So why do I need to go out there? He’s the one who moved, not me. (This preamble has precious little to do with sports betting, so feel free to skip ahead to my terrible picks.) 

Anyway, his oldest kid was having his bar mitzvah, so I had to go out there. This despite nearly 18 months of trying not to go. Expensive and all to fly my family out there. (Terrible person, right?)

But in the end, we went. And we had a blast. My kids — 14, 12, and 9 — and his kids — 13, 11, and 7-year-old twins — were overjoyed to spend time together. The affair was lovely, and San Francisco was pretty awesome. We got to do some light sightseeing and eat at some great restaurants.

It was more than worth it, and all my belly-aching and anxiety and nonsense was a waste of time and energy. (Some might say I’m not only terrible, but also stupid. And emotionally stunted.)

Then, the day after we got home, with all this familial joy in my heart, I felt sick. Not terrible, but not great. I chalked it up to post-travel hoo-ha.

The next day, I spiked a fever. I noticed we had COVID tests lying around, so I figured, “What the heck?”

You know how these tests say “wait 15 minutes” for results? Well, I didn’t have to wait 15 minutes. About 15 seconds after I swished my snot around the thing, the double line came back so fast it practically stood up.

And then, in rapid succession, my wife and kids got COVID. Obviously, we picked it up traveling. 

This was my second time with COVID. First time, I didn’t even know I had it. Barely a sniffle.

This time? For about 48 hours, I felt like I had louse-borne typhus on the Eastern Front during World War I. It was ugly.

The worst of it was Wednesday through Friday, straight through the Thanksgiving games and prime time for NFL research.

Did this stop me from betting and playing DFS? It did not. 

So I lost, and lost everywhere, last week. And that’s why I’m sending my brother the bill.

The +1000 or more parlay of the week

Now we’re 0-12. Uh-oh.

This week at DraftKings, going under 47.5 in the Texans-Broncos game, the Steelers moneyline at -238, the Eagles moneyline at +136, and the Panthers moneyline at +185.

Rationale: The Texans have beat up on bad defenses, and the Broncos are not a bad defense (as it turns out); the Steelers should handle the west coast traveling for a 1 p.m. terrible Cardinals team. The Eagles … oh, the Eagles. They have a such a “taking care of business” thing going on right now, I have a tough time seeing them lose to anyone, even a team as talented as the 49ers (and the fact the Niners are favorites allows for a Bill Simmons-esqe “they don’t believe in us!” statement game). As for the Panthers, well, the Bucs do their damage through the air, and the Panthers are stout against the pass. Plus, I’ll give them the standard “position coach takes over team, team rallies around him” boost that seems to happen every time. (See: Saturday, Jeff and Pierce, Antonio).

Anyway, this dog of a bet comes in at +1739. One time, baby. One time.

The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose

Down to 6-6 as the Lions did me — and everyone else — in. Of course, I saw this coming, saying in this space, “The Lions worry me.”

This week, at +160 at BetMGM, gimme the Steelers pick ‘em over the Cards, the Broncos +9 at Houston, and the Jaguars -2.5 at home against the Bengals. 

Favorite that makes me nervous

Missed this one, took the Broncos, and they won outright. Alas.

This week, I’m taking the opposite: The Texans as 3-point favorites over the Broncos makes me nervous. What can I say? I’m not sold on the Texans, at least not yet.

Player props I like

Went 1-1 last week, down to 17-23, but was profitable, as I had Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown at +240 for the win, while I lost Jared Goff’s passing yardage prop, going under 255.5.

Jaylen Waddle, over 67.5 receiving yards, -110 at bet365: The most successful passing team in the league against the least successful passing defense team in the league. I also like Tyreek Hill over 97.5 yards.

Jameson Williams, over 23.5 receiving yards, -110 at FanDuel: He is the official number three receiver on the Lions, has seen his snap share soar, there’s no Marshon Lattimore, and one completion will get him there.

Adam Thielen, over 5.5 receptions, -115 at BetMGM: Tampa is a pass funnel, especially over the middle, rebound game for Thielen with new offensive playcaller.

Curtis Samuel, over 3.5 receptions, -132 at FanDuel: The Commanders slot man should be busy in what projects to be a high scoring affair against Miami.

Najee Harris anytime touchdown -105 at bet365: He is the Steelers back when they hit the red zone, and the Cardinals are abysmal against the run. 

Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?

Why do I do this to myself.

My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week

Down to 4-8 after taking the Raiders in what I referred to as a “double yuck” pick. I’m blaming COVID.

This week, let’s roll with the under in the Broncos-Texans. I just have a hard time seeing this game go 28-21.