The Ravens are looking to leverage their home-field advantage against a Patriots team that has yet to lose on the road this season, setting up a game with several high-value betting picks. Our New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens predictions highlight top picks, player props, and totals for this Week 16 Sunday NFL matchup, including Ravens to cover the spread and Derrick Henry’s rushing yard projection.
Disclaimer: Sports betting is unpredictable and these suggestions are based on analysis of the game’s form, matchups, and player performance.
Patriots vs. Ravens Sunday NFL Match Overview
The Patriots enter this Week 16 matchup at 11–3 after a narrow 35–31 loss to the Buffalo Bills that snapped their 10-game winning streak. New England has been dominant on the road, remaining undefeated in six away games this season. Drake Maye’s 70.9% completion rate and 23 passing touchdowns make him a high-efficiency threat through the air, while TreVeyon Henderson and Harold Landry III provide balance on offense and pass rush. However, injuries to key defensive players such as Carlton Davis III, Marcus Jones, and Robert Spillane could weaken their ability to stop Baltimore’s rushing attack.
Baltimore (7–7) comes off a 24–0 shutout of the Bengals and has performed better at home, making M&T Bank Stadium a favorable environment. Lamar Jackson has recovered from a recent illness and should be ready to lead the dual-threat offense, while Derrick Henry continues to produce on the ground. Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie and linebacker Teddye Buchanan are out, which could give New England opportunities but the return of Ronnie Stanley and Roquan Smith helps shore up Baltimore’s line and linebacker depth. Historically, the Patriots lead the all-time series 11–5, but Baltimore won the last matchup 37–26 in 2022, highlighting that this game could be tight.
Ravens -2.5 to Cover (Spread)
Key factors favoring the Ravens covering the spread include their strong home performance and Patriots’ depleted secondary. Baltimore has shown the ability to run the ball effectively with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, while New England may struggle to stop the rushing attack without key linebackers. The spread provides a cushion for a likely close win at home.
Over 48.5 Total Points
Both teams feature potent offenses capable of scoring in bunches. New England’s passing efficiency and Baltimore’s run-pass balance suggest multiple scoring drives. Patriots’ depleted secondary and Ravens’ ability to move the ball against average defenses indicate this game is likely to surpass 48.5 points.
Derrick Henry Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
Henry has averaged five 100-yard games this season, including last week’s 100-yard performance. With New England’s linebackers and secondary weakened, Derrick Henry should see enough volume to comfortably surpass 79.5 rushing yards.
Drake Maye Over 237.5 Passing Yards
Maye is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL right now, and the Ravens rank 26th in pass defense, creating a favorable matchup. The Patriots may need to pass consistently to keep up with Baltimore’s run-heavy attack, which increases the likelihood that Maye exceeds 237.5 passing yards.
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