Phillies Favored In NLCS, But It’s Been An Underdog Postseason

The National League’s two 100-game winners have been dispatched unceremoniously, and the NLCS gets underway Monday night with a pair of very hot wild card teams sending their very best Zac(k)s to the mound.

The Philadelphia Phillies are an impressive 5-1 in the postseason, beating the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves by combined scores of 31-10. If anything, the bottom-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks have looked even better in sweeping both the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers by a collective 30-11 in five games.

But as the Phils won six more games than Arizona during the regular season, have home field advantage at crowd-crazed Citizens Bank Park, and are a deeper and more experienced squad making their second straight NLCS appearance, the mobile sportsbooks list them as a strong favorite.

The best price to back them to win the best-of-seven series Monday morning at seven national sites we examined was the -175 offered by DraftKings.

No one should scoff, however, at those betting on Arizona to make its first World Series appearance since 2001. The underdog has won three of the first four postseason series in the NL this year, including the Dbacks’ two sweeps in which they won all four games they played on the road. A bettor who likes their chances to advance could get +170 from PointsBet or Barstool Sportsbook.

Phils a smaller favorite in opener

While the Phillies’ 90 regular-season wins and the Diamondbacks’ 84 were quite modest compared to their division series foes, the Braves and Dodgers, these are two teams currently playing stellar ball and both led by a pair of top starting pitchers — Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for the Phils and Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for the Dbacks.

Wheeler and Gallen meet in the first game, which starts shortly after 8 p.m. on TBS. The Phillies are favored at odds squeezed a bit tighter than for the series overall. The best price for a Phillies bettor is the -162 from FanDuel, while someone backing Arizona could get +145 from PointsBet or +143 from BetRivers.

The run total, considering the two strong starters and well-rested bullpens, is 7.5, with BetRivers and PointsBet offering even money on the over and BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook among a group listing -115 on the under.

That extra juice on under 7.5 comes despite how well the two offenses have been clicking.

Philadelphia has hit 11 home runs in four playoff games thus far at Citizens Bank Park, including four in the past two games by Nick Castellanos alone. Trea Turner is batting .500 in the postseason, and Bryce Harper (who celebrates his 31st birthday Monday) is of course being very Bryce Harperish.

THE BRYCE HARPER SHOW CONTINUES 🍿

He now has the most homers in NLDS history with 1️⃣0️⃣‼️

(via @Phillies)pic.twitter.com/pWaqh3Nw5B

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 11, 2023

Arizona, meanwhile, is averaging six runs per game in the playoffs, with 13 home runs in five games. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte each have seven hits and two homers, and Christian Walker has a 1.023 OPS.

At the same time, both teams’ pitching staffs have been dominant in October, with the Phils collectively posting a 1.53 ERA and Diamondbacks not far behind at 2.20.

The teams met seven times in the regular season, with Philadelphia holding a 4-3 edge. But perhaps foreshadowing how close and exciting this NLCS could be, five of the seven games were decided by one run.

The series opener is preceded by the second game of the ALCS, in which the Texas Rangers took a 1-0 lead over the Houston Astros Sunday night.

That made Texas a slight favorite over the Phillies in World Series odds, with Caesars offering the best return Monday on the Phils at +220. The Diamondbacks could be had at +500 at Caesars and Barstool. Texas could be bet at +200 at BetMGM and Houston at +340 at Barstool.