NFL Week 14 concludes with not one but two Monday Night Football games: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, and Green Bay Packers at New York Giants, both of which kick off at 8:15 ET.
While we’re still hours away from hearing Chris Stapleton’s weekly rendition of “In the Air Tonight” (featuring Snoop Dogg & Cindy Blackman Santana), the team from RotoGrinders is setting the mood with a trio of picks using NFL odds from some of the top betting apps.
Titans-Dolphins o46 points (-115), BetMGM
The Titans may be a fun, young football team next year, but they are not close to earning that description right now.
They lead the league in offseason cap space, but that does not help them for Monday night’s game against Miami. Undoubtedly, one of Tennessee’s few paths to victory includes running the football and shortening the game. But the negative game script may be too much for Tennessee.
The Titans’ secondary is beyond banged up, and the defensive line will be missing all-pro Jeffrey Simmons, which is a huge loss. There is a chance Miami hangs 35-plus on the Titans. Will Levis loves to air it out (even if his receivers stink), so at worst, he’ll be taking some shots even if he is under major pressure from the pass rushers. I think this thing goes over this number.
Reed o40.5 receiving yards (-110), DraftKings
Jayden Reed has had at least 46 receiving yards in six of 12 games this season. More importantly, he has averaged 49.3 receiving yards per game without Christian Watson in the lineup and 40.6 receiving yards per game with Watson active. If you didn’t know, Watson and Luke Musgrave have both been ruled out of this game.
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This should lead to a much higher target share for Reed, who draws a nice matchup against the Giants. On the season, New York has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
I like Reed’s chances to see eight or more targets tonight, and if that’s the case, odds are he reaches 41 or more receiving yards.
— Derek Farnsworth (a.k.a. Notorious)
Achane o2.5 receptions (+145), bet365
De’Von Achane returned to the lineup last week and looked like the RB1 in this offense once again. He saw four targets and caught three of them, and also got 17 carries.
Achane has at least three catches in three of four games where he didn’t leave early due to injury, and Mike McDaniel clearly loves calling designed plays for one of their his explosive players.
Last week, Achane ran a route on 48% of dropbacks. On Monday night, we’re projecting Achane to account for over 14% of the team’s targets against the Titans, resulting in a catch projection of 3.99. There’s some value on this player prop at bet365 sportsbook.
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