The 2025-26 NBA regular season is reaching its end, and tonight’s Pacific Division clash between the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena carries a lot of weight in terms of implications for playoff seeding. While the Lakers have already crossed the 50-win threshold, the Suns are still battling to solidify their spot in the top six to avoid the play-in tournament.
Despite being on the second leg of a back-to-back following a 119-103 win over the Warriors last night, the Lakers have been one of the league’s hottest teams, winning 27 of their last 40 games. Phoenix, meanwhile, comes in as a slight 1.5-point road favorite but will be missing a massive piece of their offensive engine.
Here are our best bets and player prop predictions for tonight’s 10:30 p.m. ET tip-off on NBA TV.
The following NBA picks have an analytical viewpoint. Be sure to check out sportsbooks like Fanatics or a big-time prediction market like Kalshi, which is available in states with legal sports betting, before tip-off!
Predictions are based on current market data and player availability and are subject to change.
1. Lakers Moneyline
Taking an underdog on a back-to-back can be a risky proposition, but the Lakers have shown a nice resilience down the stretch, despite all of their injuries. More importantly, the Suns will be without Devin Booker, who has been ruled out due to an ankle injury. Without Booker’s 27.1 points per game and playmaking gravity, the Suns’ offense becomes much easier for the Lakers’ length to disrupt.
Even with Luka Doncic sidelined for L.A., LeBron James continues to defy age, and the Lakers’ supporting cast, led by Rui Hachimura and Luke Kennard, has found a rhythm. Expect the Lakers to ride the home crowd energy to a win against a static Phoenix attack.
2. Deandre Ayton to Record Double-Double
The former Sun has been a force on the glass since joining the Lakers, and tonight presents a “revenge game” narrative that Ayton has historically leaned into. Going up against the combination of Mark Williams and rookie Khaman Maluach, Ayton should have plenty of opportunities for second-chance points and defensive boards.
With both teams expected to miss key perimeter threats (Booker and Doncic), expect a higher-than-average volume of missed shots, giving Ayton the runway to clear this double-digit mark easily.
3. Suns Under 110.5 Points Team Total
The Suns’ offensive efficiency takes a massive dip when Booker is off the floor. While Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green have had productive inaugural years in Phoenix, the Lakers have solid wing defenders like Rui Hachimura and Marcus Smart (if he plays through his ankle issue) to make their lives difficult.
Against a Lakers defense that enjoys a nice spike in efficiency without Luka, the Suns may struggle to crack the 110-point barrier on the road.
How We Make Our Predictions
We gather data including fighter form, significant strike metrics, and takedown accuracy. We analyze head-to-head history and stylistic matchups to find value where odds do not reflect advanced metrics. Our model focuses on selections that clear a 60% hit-rate threshold to ensure consistency.
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