Before we get to my Super Bowl sports betting picks — I know, I know, you can’t wait one more second, just settle down — I figured I’d do one of those Peter King-like “things I think I think” things to kick this off.
1) This Kansas City Chiefs team reminds me of Muhammad Ali’s rope-a-dope strategy. All regular season long, they looked flat. Playoffs start, they start punching. Despite their flaws, right now, they are probably the last team the 49ers would prefer to face.
2) Taylor Swift is definitely part of a deep state psychological operation. No question. My uncle — who, you should know, always starts his email subject lines with “re: re: re: re: re: re: re: re:” — told me.
3) This game may very well come down to coaching. If that’s the case, I stand with Andy Reid. He is not afraid to take risks, whereas Kyle Shanahan is known to be more conservative. And really — it’s the 4th quarter, Chiefs down 20-16, they have the ball with four minutes left and facing a 4th and 5 at midfield. You betting against Pat Mahomes there? Exactly.
4) Instead of going to Disney World, Travis Kelce — fresh off a 23-354-5 Super Bowl MVP game — is going to be leading a strike team against Houthi rebels while Swift entertains the troops, USO-style. She will also be hypnotizing them to vote for Joe Biden.
5) I honestly think this game is going to play out like it seems like it should — the 49ers trying to run the ball 30 times, the Chiefs trying to pass the ball 40 times. It’s entirely possible neither team is particularly successful. I lean under.
6) You can rearrange the letters in “Travis Kelce Taylor Swift” to spell “a refractive sky tilts low.” You do the math. I’d watch out around sunset time in Vegas Sunday. Keep your eyes wide, sheeple. It’s happening.
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7) If I were the 49ers, I’d try to bury the Chiefs early. They will undoubtedly be expecting a run-heavy script to start, and I’m not sure this Chiefs team — rope-a-dope be damned — is capable of a big comeback.
And lastly,
8) Pretty sure the Pfizer COVID vaccine is responsible for Jason Kelce’s outrageous shirtless displays. Looking into it.
On to the show …
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
The championship week beat was brutal. Had the Chiefs moneyline, Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown, and the Lions moneyline at +1603. I mean, come on.
Last gasp here, obviously going with an SGP, over to DraftKings. It’s Chiefs moneyline, Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 40 receiving yards, Kelce anytime touchdown, Deebo Samuel over 25 yards rushing. It’s a +4800 parlay. (By the way, this is why you line shop across betting apps, as this price at FanDuel — same bet — is +2953).
Rationale? Well, I like the Chiefs, and Kelce is going to score because that’s what he’s been doing. Mahomes has shown more trust in MVS of late, and Deebo is going to get opportunity. That’s it. That’s the bet. I win, I have my third straight profitable year of +1000 or more bets. I lose … oh well.
Favorite that makes me nervous
Yeah, well, um, it’s the Niners.
Player props I like
I’m not the one to ask, but MVS is really looking like he might pop. He played 83% of the snaps — a season high — against the Ravens. He’ll be on the field. Even if he only gets the same two targets he got last week, he could turn it into 120 yards. I’m going to sprinkle some ladder bets on him, all the way up to over 80 yards at FanDuel at +920.
Did I Win The DraftKings Milly Maker
You know what, you don’t need to ask anymore.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Up to 11-9 with my Lions +7.5 pick, this week, rolling with the Chiefs and taking the 2 points. Until next year … or, maybe, the start of the UFL season.
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