This Chiefs-49ers SGP Pays 72/1 At FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s hard to believe that the NFL postseason is wrapping up. It’s Super Bowl time, as the Kansas City Chiefs are set to take on the San Francisco 49ers in Sin City. Patrick Mahomes & Co. are 2-point underdogs at most sportsbooks, and the over/under is 47.5. There are also a plethora of props to choose from, no matter what betting app you’re looking at. 

For our purposes, I went to FanDuel Sportsbook and crafted a seven-leg, same-game parlay moonshot with massive +7287 odds. In it, we have several player props, a moneyline bet, and an alt-total.

Let’s dive in and run through each leg.

Brock Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards

This isn’t where I expected to land as one of my favorite picks of the week. Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to eclipse this number in 12 of 21 games this season, and pretty much every QB with a decent pair of legs was able to hit 13 yards. Most of the misses were “statue” quarterbacks like Mac Jones, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Aidan O’Connell. Purdy, meanwhile, is not afraid to run the football. He’s hit the over at this number in both playoff games. With so much attention paid to Christian McCaffrey, I am sure Kyle Shanahan is going to design some boots for Purdy to roll out the other way and look downfield or tuck and run for a few easy gains. And with everything on the line, there should be less hesitation to take off and go with any opportunity.

Christian McCaffrey 70+ Rushing Yards

Let’s get some wiggle room on his prop line. CMC is going to be fed during this football game. I’m still floored that Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken thought it would be a good idea to air it out, going away from the Ravens’ bread and butter, against Kansas City. The Ravens inexcusably called just three early-down running-back runs in the first half of the AFC Championship. That was one week after James Cook and Josh Allen carved the Chiefs up. I’m expecting a heavy dose of the San Francisco ground attack. According to Fantasy Points, the Chiefs coughed up the 11th-most adjusted rushing yards before contact per attempt in the regular season.

Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Again, a lot of juice on this one, but it’s warranted. McCaffrey has scored in 15 of his 18 games played this season, with multiple scores in both of the 49ers’ playoff games. The Chiefs are vulnerable on the ground, and Shanahan is no dummy.

Deebo Samuel 50+ Receiving Yards

The Chiefs played man coverage at a top-10 rate while playing the most two-high safety looks in the NFL this season. This should be a spot with one-on-one coverage on the outside, but with two safeties over the top, Shanahan should lean on some bubble screens and designed stuff around the line of scrimmage for Samuel, the team’s Swiss Army knife. It’s going to be one of the only favorable ways to get San Francisco’s playmakers in space against this rugged man-coverage defense that doesn’t want to give up splash plays over the top. RotoGrinders has Samuel projected at just over 57 receiving yards.

Travis Kelce 70+ Receiving Yards

Forget the “Kelce is washed” or all of the Taylor Swift talk (hey, she’s dropping a new album). Kelce still has it, and he’s still the best tight end in the league. The 49ers’ group of linebackers isn’t fantastic in pass coverage over the middle, as evidenced by Sam LaPorta doing whatever he wanted a couple Sundays ago. Both of KC’s playoff games were played in less-than-ideal weather conditions. I’m expecting Kelce to clear this number fairly easily and for Patrick Mahomes to find some success in the passing game. RotoGrinders has Kelce projected for 79 yards.

Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline +110

I’m not sure if my decision would have been the same two months ago, but it’s a week-to-week league, and I’ve seen enough from the Chiefs. They’re in much better form, and I’m expecting Brock Purdy to make a few bad choices with the football when Shanahan’s script runs out. And the Chiefs also have that Mahomes guy working his magic.

Under 49.5 Total Points

It’s a bit of an inflated alternative total, but that protects us from key-number final scores like 28-20 and 28-21. Both teams should (mostly) want to run the football and keep the clock burning. Steve Spagnuolo has the Kansas City defense playing at a very high level, and the 49ers are also in the upper tier of defensive units. There’s sure to be some early nerves in the beginning of this game, and I have a hard time predicting a shootout.